Telangana State had to be established primarily to solve the Water Supply Problem for Telangana Farmers.
Kaleshwaram LIFT Irrigation Project Begins at #Kaleshwaram confluence point of Pranahita Tributary in River Godavari.
CM KCR Kaleshwaram LIFT Irrigation Project will LIFT daily 2 TMC Water during the Rainy Season of about 120 day July till October and some what less in June and Nov – January Period
Karnepalli Pump House that has Civil Structures Capacity for 3 TMC per day and Pumps Fit for 2 TMC per day Annaram Barrage Ready to Impound the Water Lifted from Medigadda in Reverse Flow within Godavari River
Further Similar Pump House from Backwaters of Annaram LIFTS and Puts the Water in Sundialla Barrage further up stream in River Godavari
Pump House from Backwaters of Sundialla Barrage LIFT the Water and put into Existing Yellampally Reservoir.
From Yellampally Reservoir Long Twin Tunnels (not for Road Transport but for Water Transport will Reach the Massive Under Ground Pump Houses and Surge Pools, Largest Such Under Ground Pump Houses Ever Made by Humans other than for Hydro Power Stations in the world. In two Stages with Over 100 Meter LIFTING of Pumps with Capacity of over 100 MW each will Take daily 2 TMC Water to Newly Built Mid Maner Reservoir
Once Water Reaches Mid Maner within 2019 for the first time Over 10 Lakh Acre Irrigattion would Happen Under New Ayacut created by Kaleshwaram and the Large Canal and Reservoirs built but not having Water in Godavari River from Maharashtra for many years under Sri Ram Sagar Project, Lower Maner thru Kakatiya Canal and Flood Flow Canal Systems.
The Joy of Youth is Self Explanatary to see the Mid Maner Reservoir with Crest Gates !From Mid Maner Further Water will be LIFTED into Newly Built Ranganayak Sagar, above Under ground Pump House too is getting ready
Overall below New Comman Area will be Created Under Kaleshwaram Lift Irrigation Project
Above 147 TMC Above 147 .71 TMC New Reservoirs are in addition to the Existing Reservoirs of Over 150 TMC in the form of SRSP, Yellampally, Lower Maner, Nizam Sagar and Singur in Godavari Basin that will be Backfilled with the Multi Stage Ultra Mega Water LIFTING Project in the World
2019 KCR’s Kaleshwaram Project will Make him Independent India’s First Leader Who Made Jai Kisan a Reality by Providing Water Security ie Life Line for Indian Agriculture by Topping up the Water Table not by depleting the Water Table, By Leveraging the Surplus River Water for Welfare of Indian Farmers to Driver Poverty out of Rural Telangana.
#KCR4Bharat would become Buzzword in 2019 and Kaleshwaram Would Catapult KCR in to National Politics as a Politician Who Delivers Goods and Solves the Problems with innovative Ways.
9th Dec 2021 Indian Farmers Made History in not just getting the Undemocratic, Autocratic, Anti Farmers Acts enacted by democratically elected Government Repealed. Exposing the way the government during pandemic has effected the acts thru ordinance and trampled on every democratic process and federal principles of Indian Constitution and reduced the role of parliament and elected members of parliament into a voice vote system over ruling even demand for voting by the opposition in the Rajya Sabha. Intent and content of all the three acts were exactly opposite of what the goverment was telling the people by obfuscation and propaganda.
Government, Party and all its machinery in the media, polcie and entire institutions including the highest court of the land brought into mitigate the unmitigable and indefensible acts and maligning the farmers like never before in the entire history of India’s civilization, not just independent India.
Salute the Martyrs who laid their life in the fight for their rights and refused to be cowed down and commend the unique collective leadership of “Samyukt Kisan Morcha” for uniting the famers and workers across India and opening the eyes of entire India including the non farmers about the hard reality patiently and refusing to fall into the various traps the ruling party and their machinery tried relentlessly
Indian Farmers have achieved what no agitation has achieved in Independent India so far:
Peoples Voice and collective pressure is ultimate in democracy and is beyond the mandate of any elections.
Mahatma’s Non-violenc struggle can defeat any Tyranny and Indians will activate it against any Tyrannical force that emerges on Indian Soil ever.
Indian Agriculture is the core of Indian Culture not the Corporate Culture
India’s development without making Indian Farmers and Agriculture viable is not sustainable
Indian Governments can not abdicate their duty and handover Indian Agriculture sector to Corporate and market forces
I wish the Indian Farmers Bigger Success in the second leg of Creating MSP delivery mechanism for all Indian farmers being part of the committee to be formed by the Government of India including the State Governments and create a role model for the welfare for farmers everywhere in the world.
Indian Farmers and Workers Unity is here to stay and will reflect the Unity in Diversity idea of India forever
On 1st July 2021 AP CM Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy Garu has Written Letter to Union Water Resoruces Minister Shri Gajendra Singh Shekhawat Ji and the letter is made Public.
This is My Analysis of Contents of the Letter and also what is not stated in the letter and future implications and my thoughts on what is the reasonable way for both states to move forward in settling the issue mutually.
Contents of the Letter, Omissions, Mistakes and Misinformation therein :
Omission #1 : Srisailam Left Bank Power House (6×150 MW) is not a Normal Hydro Power Station, it is a Reversible Pump House it can Generate Power during the Peak Load by Releasing Water down and can Lift back water from Nagarjuna Sagar into Srisailam during the surplus power in grid during the night every day, Telangana state has been doing it every year since 2014. Unlike Right Bank Power House (7×110 MW) that is Simply Hydro Power Station, which is not a Pump House. The letter fails to distinguish its fundamental purpose is to Shift Power in the Grid from Low Load time by pumping into Srisailam to Peak Load time generating Power for effective power management. This is a National Asset for Effective Power Management.
Omission #2 Srisailam Water Release to Nagarjuna Sagar is Necessary to Secure Enough Water for GHMC Hyderabad and Mission Bhagiratha Water Supply Schemes from Nagarjuna Sagar based on AMRP Scheme, its conveniently left out by the AP CM Letter. There is no Drinking Water Shortage for Chennai or Rayalaseema as Most Reservoirs on Telugu Ganga, Handir Neeva, Galeru Nagiri have Significant Water stored with last year late floods, its a False alarm letter. as of 1st July 2021 Somasila has 45 TMC Kandaleru has 40 TMC Brahmamgari Matam has 10 TMC Yeleru 11 TMC Veligodu 3 TMC. Letters Claim of 4 districts of Rayalaseema, Nellore, Prakasam and Chennai city in to Serious trouble is Outright LIE as the Water levels given above demonstrate, very unbecoming for a CM to make such baseless and meaningless claims and false alarms against the neighbor state.
Mistake #1 Letter states Telangana is unilaterally releasing the Water from Srisailam although there is no irrigation water requirement on downstream and Nagarjuna Sagar is already having 173.86 TMC of water. Nagarjuna Sagar Dead Storage is more than 174 TMC no water can be released for Irrigation, its misleading statement as both Left and Right Canal Ayacuts in AP and TS need Sagar to be filled for Irrigation and they have no other storage like Potireddipadu diversion has stored based on last year floods as mentioned above. What Telangana is doing is as per the Krishna River Water Tribunal Priorities. First Water Need to be filled in N. Sagar to Secure the ayacut with firm allocation then impound in Srisailam only after meeting all firm allocations of Krishna Delta, N Sagar, Srisailam Left and Right Allocations and Chennai Water allocation Surplus Water can be diverted to Penna Basin Irrigation Requirements, Letter claiming 854 ft is the MDDL for Power Generation is of no relevance and all such GO’s issued before Telangana State formation have no locus standi, state has been formed precisely because of such irrational and anti Telangana and even against optimal use of national assets for partisan benefits of one region denying the natural krishna basin rights of Telangana for decades. Unless AP state reconciles to this fact it will be making more mistakes and losing whatever good will gestures Telangana state has been making to AP since the state formation rescuing AP crops whenever it needed by letting the state utilize the water from Telangana state quota as it did in very first year rescuing the crops under Sagar Right Canal.
KRMB can allocate water to States and it should not have any authority to put any restriction on Srisailam Left Bank Power House as Mere Movement of Water from Srisailam to N Sagar is not utilization of Water its Only Conversion of Potential Energy with the use of Pumped Storage Facility for Effective Power Management.
Nagarjuna Sagar Power House is also mostly Pumped Storage facility between N Sagar and Tailpond that after Telangana state is established is completed and is being utilized for Power Management.
AP trying to deny effective Power Management utilizing the Precious National Assets of Srisailam Left Bank Pumped Storage Facility and Nagarjuna Sagar Pumped Storage Facility is Wrong and its time Telangana State insist to Central Electricity Authority be added to KRMB and change the way these 2 Reversible pump houses have to be leveraged for effective power management for national good as they are rare and precious nations assets, KRMB can not be allowed to place restrictions on effective power management, in fact other states also should have access to utilize for a service fee to improve their power management when Telangana needs are already met. India needs to utilize every such National assets Pumped Storage Facilities :
6x 150MW @ Srisailam Left Bank
7 x 100 MW @ Nagarjuna Sagar
4 x 250 MW @ Tehri
6 x 200 MW @ Sardar Sarovar
Future Implications of Recent Short Sighted attempts by AP CM and his Govt
Telangana State will Proceed to Maximize tapping Krishna Water above Srisailam Reservoir
Expedite all its Lift Irrigation Projects on Krishna and Tungabhadra
Increase Godavari River Water utilization to supplement Telangana Basin and de-risk Sagar Left Canal Ayacut
AP state can end up with Water fights within when Nagarjuna Sagar Right Canal Ayacut is kept to wait while entire Rayalaseema gets water from Rayalaseema Lift and Handri Neeva Lift Scheme from Srisailam
Even if AP gets some short term benefits due to its low altitude terrain as much as Telangana state expedites utilizing its minimum assured 299 TMC share in Krishna River Reservoirs that much water become less available for AP, considering even in last season it could not utilize even 200 TMC of Krishna River Water as its Palamuru and Dindi Lift Irrigation and SLBC Tunnel Projects are yet to become operational on Krishna River which will clearly enable Telangana achieve capacity to utilize 299 TMC of Water from Krishna River
My Suggestion to both AP and Telangana CM’s
Their approach to deny other is going to hurt farmers of both and as a result two avoidable losses are happening :
Effective Power Management is not happening which even AP can utilize by having good understanding with Telangana to shift power from Low load to peak load every day using the precious assets
Water is going waste into Bay of Bengal during Peak Floods as in last year more than 1000 TMC went to Bay of bengal from Prakasam barrage within 40 days during peak floods and in the entire year neither Telangana could cross 200 TMC utilization nor AP 500 TMC
AP is doing blunder by Rejecting Telangana offer to have Godavari Water be transferred to Srisailam thru Telangana with a Inter State Agreement, knowing very well at least 1 year and some times 2 years in every 3 years there is deficit in Krishna River Water while Godavari always has surplus every year, supplementing Srisailam with Godavari water is real water security for Rayalaseema .. AP choice to Reject and its idea that it can do it all thru AP itself tapping from Polavaram is going to be herculean and won’t be able to leverage Srisailm effectively !
Involving Center and asking in this letter to have CISF take over the facilities, when center has already amended River Water Tribunal in Loksabha, where it will have powers to take over from states at the timing of its choice is playing into the BJP Game plan where it wants to take over the subject from States , it does not appear both states have fully understood the potential risks to both states with the “The Inter-State River Water Disputes (Amendment) Bill, 2019”
Maharashtra – Telangana Inter State Agreement on Kaleshwaram is a Great example as to how respecting others priorities can lead to a mutually agreeable agreement between states and in case of Telangana and AP with 2 Large common reservoirs such agreement is a necessity not an option.
Principles of Such Agreement should be to move away from Project based allocation to
100% common telemetry real time monitoring of Water Release or Lifting out of Krishna River
Pumped Storage Operations should not be restricted in effective power management
Net discharge over agreed period should be the only measure for Pumped Storage Operations and both states in TS and AP in that order of priority should leverage these valuable assets
Lifting Capacities should be mutually agreed as neither state can go for too aggressive invements in lifting capacities as they hurt each other both economically and on water availability, AP has to recognize and accept due to the type of terrain TS can only do more of Lifting from Srisailam with Gravity option practically not available with SLBC tunnel struck for 30 years now !
First step AP has to take is to install 100% accurate and accessable telemetry at all its points for water discharge measurement, unlike previous govt under reporting this AP govt has reported Potireddipadu diversion more realistically and it should take next logical step.
It should also negotiate the lifting capacity and the basis for lifting of Rayalaseema Lift before proceeding further and both should give mutal consent for thers projects and rights than keep them as disputed and avoid playing games, I don’t think people also have any more interest in such non co-operation politics that actually was the main reason for formation of Telangana state.
Historical Context: India has been an Agrarian Work Force Economy at the time of Independence, India had to depend largely for the foreign food aid to feed the landless poor in the country due to heavy food shortages. As part of First Five Year Plan India started building Modern Temples of Multipurpose Dams across India on Major rivers followed with aggressive #MSP system introduced with the Jai Jawan, Jai Kisan Slogan during China war in 1965, these helped India achieve Green Revolution and Food Security that helped India later unleash its potential to Progress in Industry and Services Sectors in 1992.
Following the Success of India’s Liberalization, Indian Economy got into a dichotomy with Manufacturing and Services accounting for Over 80% of GDP creating new upwardly mobile large middle class, yet the Majority of Indian Workforce remained making its living in Agriculture Sector. This means Liberalization has not progressed with good protection of agriculture sector and has not achieved the required Job growth in manufacturing and services sector. In other words part of the Non-farming Indians Growth came at the expense of farmers as successive governments pursued, highly subsidized Public Distribution System and controlling food inflation to be lower than overall inflation to escape from the wrath of public anger against Govts, OECD in its report “Trade and Agriculture Policied in India dated 4th July 2018” has said ” India Contrasts with Other OECD Countries becuase of Negative Market Price Support” this means “Prices Received by Indian Farmers is less than the comparable International Prices for almost all food grains during the 2000 to 2016 period, it has also estimated these losses to Indian farmers to be fluctuating every year from INR 2.239 Lakh Crore to INR 8.19 Lakh Crore and total for 16 years is about INR 45 Lakh Crores. “
” India Contrasts with Other OECD Countries becuase of Negative Market Price Support”
This has been more severe since 2008 global financial crisis where the Govts priority shifted away from agriculture sector to manage inflation and economy more than welfare and protection of weakest with agriculture, public education and public health getting less and less public investments.
Agriculture being a state subject in India the situation is different from state to state, its not fair to paint all states with the same brush. There are large agrarian Indian states where farmer distress is severe and more needs to be done in creating the APMC closer and ensuring #MSP benefit is extended to every Indian farmer not only to those in few states or closer to existing mandis.
In recent past India has not only achieved self-reliance in Paddy and Wheat, but it now can also be a good player in Export Market too, however due to poor storage facilities along with quality and other infrastructure bottlenecks, India’ is suffering massive wastages and loss of opportunities in the global food grain market. On Perishable food produce, India lacks both cold storage and freezing technologies and infrastructure and the situation is even more poor in this sector, there is no doubt a National large-scale intervention required to accelerate Food Processing, Food Value Chain Setup with Cold Storages and Silo storages used in all large economies in the world. This Reform is overdue in India for more than a decade.
In this backdrop what the farm laws are meant to achieve and what they end up doing whether intentional or not is:
THE FARMERS’ PRODUCE TRADE AND COMMERCE (PROMOTION AND FACILITATION) ACT, 2020
It is promoted or marketed as if farmers were not free to sell outside APMC and this act is empowering farmers to sell to any one anywhere and earn more than they currently earn. Reality is the premise that farmers had no choice outside APMC is wrong, farmers exercised APMC option with their surplus only and for faster encashment with price discovery option at APMC or with the Govt procurement at MSP. What this Act ended up creating is Two different markets, two different Laws Governing and clear incentives for the Buyers to opt for unregulated, anywhere outside APMC is treated as new Trade Area under the New Law brought under Central law and Central Jurisdiction, a clear and firm attempt to isolate, choke and remove the APMC and States Jurisdiction on Entire Farm Produce Trade in favor unregulated, liberal any one can buy from any farmer anywhere at ANY PRICE. Neither Farmer has any Certain Price discovery option, nor any Guarantee of MSP, it actually has legalized below MSP trade for even the 23-farm produce for which MSP is declared every year in India.
Way forward for this Law is: Repeal and Replace with National Private Agriculture Produce Market Model Act with Central Support to Link them to eNaam platform and making MSP as mandatory for compliance. So that Pvt Sector or Co-operative Sector Mandis flourish and ensure more mandis come up closer to the farmers and farmers are protected both for MSP and Payments thru eNaam Digital Payments.
THE FARMERS (EMPOWERMENT AND PROTECTION) AGREEMENT ON PRICE ASSURANCE AND FARM SERVICES ACT, 2020
This is most misleading title, as it neither has MSP Price assurance in it nor has any good payment protections that APMC provides now. This law is essentially for promoting Contract Farming in India. Besides it has ridiculous dispute resolution mechanism, it is simply corporate empowerment contract farming act period. Also, farming itself is a state subject and center should stay away from it. This Act needs to simply be repealed. If need by Parliament can make necessary amendments to the existing Model Agriculture Produce and Livestock Contract Farming and Services (Promotion & Facilitation) Act, 2018
THE ESSENTIAL COMMODITIES (AMENDMENT) ACT, 2020
This is the most ridiculous Amendment as it for practical purposes has repealed the Act and has made Hoarding legal and has left entire Food Grains Storage to the Private Sector with no regulations whatsoever. This has undermined the role of state governments to protect the consumers from hoarding and price manipulations.
This act has to be repealed and Replace with National Food Value Chain Infrastructure Policy for Promoting Private Sector Investments and in any case, this is not a Farm Law it should not be handled by Agriculture Ministry.
Way forward for the MSP Guarantee Act demanded by Farmers Unions is to Propose more comprehensive two stage long term sustainable mechanism.
MSP is included in the National Private Agriculture Produce Market Model Act to Replace current act, and to be added to APMC Act as well, however Govt would reserve the Right to announce cuts or total holiday for crop production depending on the National Food Grain stock to avoid the glut in the market and wastage or may keep reserve the right to keep the MSP price low to discourage any crop. This again will take care of any WTO litigations as most countries have the quota system and as MSP is base price for Pvt Sector not a 100% procurement by Govt.
Second Stage is a fall back necessary to provide Minimum Farmers Income Protection with all Agri Trade made thru Digital Platform, if Farmer Income is below the minimum Set then thru State Govts the Gap is filled for every Indian Farmer. Land will not Grow, this is not an unmanageable thing and is followed in many Countries and does not affect any WTO rules as its minimum livelihood a human rights consideration.
Clearly the 3 Laws do more Harm to Consumers, States and Farmers in that order and do a lot of Good for the businesses and that’s not the way the laws should be, as suggested there should be no hesitation to repeal these suspended laws and re-start the consultations with states and farmers to come up with fair and progressive mechanism that will meet the Industry expectations halfway.
India should also aggressively Promote Agriculture Exports with Tax Exempted 100% EOU Policy.
వ్యవసాయ మార్కెట్లు పోయి వ్యవసాయ కార్పొరేట్లు వస్తారు. దళారి కామన్. చిన్నవాళ్లు పోయి పెద్దవాళ్ళు వస్తారు. రైతుకు ఇంతకాలం అందుబాటులో ఉన్న మద్దతు వ్యవస్థలన్నిటినీ నిర్మూలించడం కొత్త చట్టాల ఆంతర్యం. రైతుకు విశాల ప్రపంచాన్ని ఇస్తున్నామని చెప్పి అందని చందమామను చూపిస్తున్నారు.
కళ్ళముందు మార్కెట్లో జరిగే దగానే ఎదిరించలేకపోయిన రైతు బలవంతుడైన కార్పొరేట్ దళారీని ఎదిరించగలడా? తన కష్టార్జితాన్ని రాబట్టుకోగలడా? కేవలం రైతులకే కాదు, మొత్తం తిండి గింజలు, కూరగాయలు, సరుకులు కొనుగోలు చేసే ప్రజానీకంపైనా కూడా ఈ చట్టాలు అదనపు భారం మోపుతాయి. ఇప్పుడే ధరల గురించి అడిగే పరిస్థితి లేదు. రేపు క్యావసాయ ఉత్పత్తులన్నీ కార్పొరేట్ల చేతిలోకి వెళితే పరిస్థితి ఎలా ఉంటుందో ఊహించవచ్చు.
కాంట్రాక్టు వ్యవసాయం కాదు, కార్పొరేట్ వ్యవసాయం. చెప్పిన పంట, ఇచ్చిన విత్తనం వేయాలి. అడిగిన నాణ్యత ఇవ్వాలి. తేడాలు వస్తే కార్పొరేట్ కంపెనీ యెంత దూరమైనా కొట్లాడగలదు. రైతు ఏమి చేయగలడు? అసలు ఈ చట్టాలు చేయమని అడిగిందెవరు? ఎవరి కష్టాలను తీర్చడానికి, ఎవరు మొరపెట్టుకున్నారని ఈ చట్టాలు తెచ్చారు?
కార్పొరేట్లు పోటీలు పడి ముందు మురిపిస్తారు. పోటీలో ఉండే ఇతర కార్పొరేట్ కంపెనీలను ముంచేస్తారు. బీఎస్ఎన్నెల్ ను ముంచలే. ప్రైవేట్ సెల్ కంపెనీలు మునగలేదా? అందరూ మునిగాక ఉన్న మూడు నాలుగు కంపనీలు ఇప్పుడు రేట్లు పెంచడం లేదా? రేపు వ్యవసాయ రంగంలోనూ అదే జరుగుతుంది.
The stated objective of Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) is to help the Minorities persecuted in 3 neighboring Muslim countries be Given Fast Track Citizenship. Let’s assume its Spirit and intent is same as what is written in the act, even then this is not in India’s Interest or should be the Priority. Firstly India has been Host to any persecuted people from any part of the world before and after independence as stated by Swami Vivekananda in his famous Chicago address:
“I am proud to belong to a nation which has sheltered the persecuted and the refugees of all religions and all nations of the earth“
So its established that we did it without CAA for all persecuted and refugees and we should continue to do so and take pride that we do it for all people without discrimination as part of our ethos of Global Family of Humanity, there is no need for any such discriminatory law that is against the Idea of India as enshrined in our Constitution Preamble that includes LIBERTY of thought, expression, belief, faith and worship; EQUALITY of status and of opportunity; and to promote among them all FRATERNITY assuring the dignity of the individual and the unity and integrity of the Nation;
CAA Negates Liberty as it discriminates Muslims, Atheists, Multi Religious people by Excluding them, CAA Negates Equality by Selecting Only 3 countries excluding Rest of the Neighbours and other countries in the world, it Completely Negates the very idea of Fraternity as it is removing the dignity of the individual by removing the right to not to disclose the whether he/she believes in a one faith or multiple or does not believe in any faith as it forces the Seeker of Indian Citizenship to declare the mono Religious belief which has no means to verify from the country from where the person entered India as its outside of the jurisdiction of Government of India other than accepting the declaration, which if is used by Foreign Agents to enter India and dupe the authorities to live and be the Agents of Foreign Intelligence the Risks to the very Unity and Integrity is too High and is totally avoidable.
Now to see what is the official Record of those who actually can benefit from this fast tracking of the people in India on Long Term Permits, as per IB reply to Parliament Committee on CAB its Only 31,313 people as against Over 89 Lakhs People who migrated in 1947 Partition into India and are already settled and became Citizens on top of it another 11 Lakh Migrants from Bangladesh entered in 1971. The Point is India has moved on so are these countries and people there is no such large migrations currently happening now and official IB Reply says only 31 thousand plus may be immediate beneficiaries of fast tracking by CAA otherwise they also become eligible over next 6 years as per pre CAA provisions that are fully in compliant with the ethos enshrined in preamble of Constitution of India.
Now lets come to the purpose of National Registrar of Citizens (NRC) this is a misleading name in the first place, its an outcome of Assam Accord and the Right name should have been Indian Citizens Registrar of Assam State to establish who were the Pre Bangladesh War Resident Indian Citizens of the state of Assam, be that as it may even after supreme court monitored exercise that costed more than 1000 crores Tax Payers Money and enormous invaluable Time of Judiciary and administration has beaten the very purpose as the Indian “Jugad” mechanism ensured most Migrants actually made it to the NRC with forged records and the natives or other migrants from rest of India got excluded, simply they never had bothered or thought they have to prove their Indian Citizenship and hence could nor provide the complex old documentation in time for various reasons. Resulting in 19 Lakh Residents in Assam are now stateless and ironically Majority seem to be not Bangladeshi Muslims, as reports suggests roughly 14 lakh are non-muslims and 5 lakh muslims and the sense is about half may be native of assam and other migrants from within India
Now the Home Minister has been consistent inside and outside parliament telling the chronology clearly that Government of India will bring CAA which he already did and then they will implement NRC across India before 2024.
The Question is, Does India not have NRC already in one form or the other, what is the lesson drawn from failure of NRC in Assam and then why Repeat the same mistake and at much larger scale.
First to think India does not know who its Citizens are is an Insult to the entire Governance from 1947 till now of all PM’s including Sri Vajpayee and Modi himself, this is simply not true. Firstly Only 18 years and above Indian Citizens get to vote in Indian Elections so the Voter List maintained by the Election Commission of India that is regularly updated before every election in Center and state is a Reasonably accurate NRC of 18 and above Indian Citizens. As far as below 18 Indian Citizens by now I would assume at least 90% of them already have #Aadhar Card. So, there is no pressing need for an NRC that adds any significant strategic value to the nation.
In my Opinion Enhancing Aadhar by adding Place of Birth and Nationality addition and giving certain period for existing card holders to get them updated and new Aadhar Cards with this 2 additional information will meet the fundamental objective of NRC on its own or in combination with Voters List and Passports in case of NRI’s.
There seem to be no National Interest or Urgency for India to rush CAA or NRC, when the economic is slowing down rapidly with none of the measures taken by the Government making any impact and with over 2 crores youth joining workforce joining every year while the Job creation is too low, resulting in increase in unemployment and underemployment. Clearly the Major Reason behind the BJP PM and Home Minister Agenda behind CAA and NRC seem political rather than any significant and urgent national interest.
Below are the likely political drivers behind the CAA and NRC in that sequence. 1. CAA will reduce the current stateless number in Assam NRC from 19 Lakh to less than 6 Lakhs as about 13 lakh or more may file the affidavit complying with new CAA requirements and become the Indian Citizens in Assam which will be to the political advantage of BJP in Assam
2. CAA will enable BJP to a reduce the need for detention camps to about 6 Lakh instead of 19 lakh and then its policies may make a lot of them opt to go back to Bangladesh officially or unofficially which again is a Big political victory for BJP
3. With above 2 Political Points scored BJP will launch for aggressive campaign for NRC in West Bengal and put the TMC on defense and it will bring rich political dividends for BJP in West Bengal.
4. With these 2 Big Political gains BJP will have permanent tool in its hands to drive polarization in each state to its political advantage with regional parties refusing to comply and it suits BJP to project its Nationalist appeal and brand others as not thinking and acting in the interest of the Nation.
5. BJP will have permanent legal means to harass Non-BJP voters, using the central authorities, as long as it is in power in the Center.
About the immeasurable damage the CAA and NRC duo to India is not only about the Idea of India, it damages the reputation of India as an inclusive and compassionate country representing Unity in Diversity with Harmony. It will cause enormous damage to the potential migrants from India for better life to various countries including Islamic countries as they would be now looked up on differently and granting Citizenship and Resident Permits could become more stringent more so to Non-Muslims from India in Islamic countries where millions of Non-Muslim Indians currently live.
This would also put millions of minorities in the three countries become more vulnerable.
Worst impact is to the India’s chances of Permanent Membership in United Nations Security Council.
Unless the CAA and NRC are nipped in the bud immediately which seems to be only possible by the honorable supreme court, declaring the act as unconstitutional and hence void. I wish, hope and pray this happens soon.
Hope and pray people become wiser to be more careful and do more scrutiny of the political motives behind the announcements by political leaders during campaign and elect the members of parliament with integrity to defend the idea of India and not become a pawn of any of their supreme leader(s).
Long Live Constitution of India Jai Bharat
Venkat Gandhi
Tokyo, Japan
Sharing the Telugu Version Publishid in Namaste Telangana Daily on 24th December 2019
Ruling BJP Government in Center has mastered the art of Centralization, while successfully misleading people and political parties talking about Competitive Federalism whenever, wherever it suits.
Republic India has all along respected the Basic Spirit of Federalism where based on Finance Commission Recommendation every 5 years a devolution formula of Federal Revenues between Center and State is followed for 5 years. This has by and large played significant role in progressive states develop faster on their own and allowed center to concentrate on helping the states needing special attention.
Once BJP Came to power in 2014 it has done eye wash of accepting the 14th FC recommendation to increase the devolution to states from 32% to 42% and tried to take maximum political credit in reality it has increased the cess on central taxes and oil etc and also cut heavily on central schemes passing central funds to states that were not counted as part of devolution that are not part of devolution, effectively it took back from another hand what it showed as a Big heart.
Now on 17th September 2019 Union Cabinet has unprecedented step of Adding new Terms of Reference to 15th commission that is almost in the verge of completing its report to Create another Center Only Large Hole to be hidden from Public Scrutiny in the name of Defense and Internal Security.
This Government has already exploited the emotions and sentiments for political gains without any such Big access to Central funds without democratic scrutiny.
It is quite obvious this New addition has a well though Agenda to puncture Federalism and weaken states and make the Center All powerful without any checks and Balances,
It is quite obvious this New addition has a well though Agenda to puncture Federalism and weaken states and make the Center All powerful without any checks and Balances.
If alarm bells are not ringing in the Regional Parties leaders and think tank and they do not come together, it would be too late to correct the irreparable damage this would be doing to the Federalism and accountability and transparency of Center to the people at large.
Careful reading of the amendment to ToR gives enough clues about two things, center wants to keep a seperate and solid pocket in the name of defence and internal security and will create new mechanism that will have no checks and balances , transparency and accountability and all such expenditure will directly cut into the developmental needs of state governments, this is taking India into Putin’s Russian Model of Authoritarian Unaccountable Governance model.
Coming April or May 2019 will See Results of Parliament Elections in India and General Consensus is No Single Party will get the Majority hence it’s going to be again back to Hung Parliament times for India.
It’s going to be Watershed Elections in the History of India as it will Have Non-Congress and Non-BJP Parties winning more than Either BJP or Congress. Constitutionally Alliances before or after elections have no difference in Parliamentary democracy of India. Pre-poll alliances are an arrangement of convenience between the political parties to increase the winnability to take on the stronger political adversaries, they have no recognition whatsoever in the rules and regulations of the Election Commission of India.
Nitish Kumar Winning the election in Bihar in alliance with RJD and then Joining the opposition BJP to form Govt again is the best proof and Andhra Pradesh CM winning in alliance with BJP and quitting NDA and now joining Congress to fight the local stronger opposition is another live example and there are many more interesting examples of JDS in Karnataka, Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and the list goes on.
The point is, there is nothing to stop any political party even if it’s in alliance with another during elections from joining with any other political party post-poll.
So, I have considered all Parties other than INC and BJP as Others (Non-Congress, Non-BJP).
My personal sense of the current mood and Minimum and Maximum Seats I expect for General Elections in India is Given Below as
Summary of 543 MP seats between BJP, INC and Rest.
State and UT details of between BJP, INC and Rest.
Here are some Major Factors that I believe will impact BJP, INC and Others:
BJP (From 282 To [106~193]): Across India, I expect BJP to lose 4% to 8% of Vote share as compared to 2014 where it achieved highest vote share and seats in its history based on Anger against UPAII coupled with Pro-Modi Wave, it surely had Black Swan Moment. Factors that will reduce the Vote share is :
Demonetization Impact on Farmers, Unorganized Sector, SME and House Wives
GST: SME’s Worst hit
Cow sale Ban: Big impact on Rural India
Rural Distress is Real and Anger is Significant
Youth Aspirations Shattered with No Meaningful Jobs Creation
Lynching: Muslims and Dalits are Highly disappointed
OBC’s Undercurrent of being let down with Excluding them from EWS Reservations
Citizenship Amendment Act will impact BJP in North East and Bengal in Big-way
RafaleDeal: will move some of the Middle class simply due to the fact HAL is removed and Ambani floated JV with Dassault and PM is not explaining what he did, why he did and how he did to people of India which leads to the suspicion that there is something to hide.
In terms of Seats: UP the alliance of SP-BSP-RLD will hit BJP Prospects in UP Big way, Though BJP lost Rajasthan and MP Assembly elections, expect BJP to do better than Congress in both states in Parliament elections. Though BJP believes it will have Big Gains in Bengal and Odisha, I do not share such optimism as the Jump required to convert Votes to Seats is too High.
INC (From 44 To[78~159] ): Across India, I expect INC to gain about 2 to 4% of Vote share as compared to 2014 which was its lowest ever, so it can only go up. Yet it won’t be able to convert the BJP losses into own Gains simply because Direct fight states are less than half (Gujarat, Rajasthan, MP, Chattisgarh, HP, Uttarakhand) in all other states there are allies or Others who will Gain from BJP loss of Votes and Seats
Main
Gains would be limited to
Chattisgarh
Punjab
Karnataka JDS alliance
Maharashtra NCP alliance
Others
(Non-Congress and Non-BJP) from 217 to [230 to 312] :
There is no doubt the BJP vote share losses would be shared between
Congress and Others, its hard to Predict about Seats for Others since there are
too many factors and some of the Others are also going to lose but gains would
be to others again so they square off like in AP, TN and Maharashtra where YCP,
DMK, NCP may gain at the cost of TDP, SS, AIADMK respectively
Big Gain is expected in UP from SP+BSP alliance and Bihar too BJP already gave up 5 seats it won in 2014 to JDU!
So While it’s almost Certain, there is not Going to be another Modi Sarkar with Own Majority the Outcome throws all options open. Unless BJP secures 200 seats the Mandate will be seen as against Modi even if it’s the Single Largest Party.
Only way Modi and
BJP will be able to attract new allies is to Embrace “Federalism” as the
National Agenda for Governance in place of BJP Hindutva Agenda.
Same is the Case with INC and Others, hitherto NDA or UPA agenda’s will not be acceptable to most of the 6 Large Strong Regional Parties (BSP, SP, TMC, BJD, TRS, YCP)
Below 5 Types of Federal Formations have Equal Chances to Form Next Govt in India after 2019 Elections
Anti-Congress BJP Lead Federal Front: Potential Allies are: JDU, Akali, Sena, YCP, AIADMK
Anti-Congress BJP included Lead by Others Federal Front: Potential Allies are: JDU, Akali, Sena, YCP, AIADMK, BJD, TRS
Anti-BJP: INC Lead Federal Front: Potential Allies are: TMC, DMK, RJD, NCP, Left Front, JDS, TDP
Anti-BJP: INC included Lead by Others Federal Front: (Karnataka Model): Potential Allies are: BSP, SP, TMC, DMK, RJD, NCP, Left Front, JDS, TDP
True Federal Front (All Non-Congress and Non-BJP)
BJP and PM Modi have wasted the full Majority given by
Indians after 30 years and have ended up scoring bigger self-goals and worked
more on Party Vikas than Vikas of People especially those at the bottom of the
pyramid. Course correction for India is to embrace Federalism with States
Growing in strength time to empower them to develop faster and Center focus on
Larger National Issues and Strategic Affairs of India.
మోదీ ఇకముందు కూడా ఇందుకు భిన్నంగా ఉండే అవకాశం లేదు. మళ్లీ అధికారంలోకి వచ్చినా ఆయన ధోరణి మారకపోవచ్చు. ఒకవేళ కాంగ్రెస్కు అధికారం ఇచ్చినా ఇదే పరిస్థితి. ఆ రెండు పార్టీలదీ ఉత్తరాది మనస్తత్వం. ఢిల్లీ కేంద్రక ఆలోచన. దక్షిణాది అంటే ఒక చిన్నచూపు. అందుకే అన్ని ప్రాంతాలు తమ అస్తిత్వాన్ని, ఆత్మగౌరవాన్ని చాటుకునే ఒక ఫెడరల్ నమూనా దేశ రాజకీయాలకు అవసరం. ఆ దిశగా తెలంగాణ ముఖ్యమంత్రి కె.చంద్రశేఖర్రావు చేస్తున్న ఆలోచన ఉత్తమమైనది. చంద్రబాబువి ఆసరా రాజకీయాలు. ఆయన ఎవరో ఒకరిపై ఆధారపడితే తప్ప రాష్ట్రంలో,రాజకీయాల్లో బతుకలేరు.
జాతీయపార్టీల కేంద్రీకృత అధికారం దేశానికి చేటు. గతంలో ఇందిరాగాంధీ, తాజాగా ప్రధాని నరేం ద్ర మోదీ నాయకత్వం ఆ విషయం బాగా రుజు వు చేసింది. ఆయన నిర్ణయాలు చేస్తున్న తీరు, వాటి తప్పొప్పులను సమీక్షించడానికి నిరాకరించే మొండితనం దేశానికి చాలా నష్టం చేస్తున్నాయి. పెద్ద నోట్ల రద్దు నిర్ణయం, జీఎస్టీ, పెట్రో ధరలకు స్వేచ్ఛ, నల్లధనం విషయంలో చేతులెత్తేయ డం, బ్యాంకు డిఫాల్టర్లను కట్టడి చేయకపోవడం, రాష్ర్టాల హక్కులను గౌరవించకపోవడం ఆయన లెక్కచేయనితనానికి తార్కాణా లు. ఇవన్నీ పదుగురితో చర్చించి తీసుకున్న నిర్ణయాలు కాదు. ఆయన, మరికొద్ది మంది దేశంపై రుద్దిన నిర్ణయాలు. బ్యాంకులు, కోర్టు లు, ఉన్నత విద్యావ్యవస్థలు, కేంద్ర దర్యాప్తు సంస్థలు, నిఘాసంస్థలు.. అన్నీ అనర్హులతో నిండిపోతున్నాయి. కేంద్రంలో బలమైన ప్రభుత్వం ఉండాలే తప్ప బలాదూర్గా వ్యవహరించే ప్రభుత్వం…
In about 3 Months India would get into Elections Mode and in 5 Months from now India would have Next Prime Minister.
Its going to be Watershed Elections in the History of India as it will Have Non-Congress and Non-BJP Parties winning more than Either BJP or Congress and Constitutionally Alliances before or after elections have no difference in Parliamentary democracy of India. Pre-poll alliances are the marriage of convenience to increase the winnability to take on the stronger political adversaries, they have no recognition whatsoever in the rules and regulations of the Election Commission of India.
Nitish Kumar Winning the election in Bihar in alliance with RJD and then Joining the opposition BJP to form Govt again is the best proof and Andhra Pradesh CM winning in alliance with BJP and quitting NDA and now joining Congress to fight the local stronger opposition and there are many more interesting examples of JDS in Karnataka, Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and the list goes on.
So this Exercise Treats any current ally of Congress and BJP also as Rest for there is nothing to stop them from joining with any other political party post-poll.
Clearly, India has no Presidential type election system and 2019 is certainly not going to be a quasi-presidential style that then PM candidate of BJP in 2014 could turn into in at least North and West of India.
2019 Elections is Clearly Going to be fought on Performance of Center and State Governments and Good Performance will be rewarded, Bad Performance will be punished and in case Average Performance its going to be a tighter contest where alternatives credibility and agenda and leadership will play a significant role.
My Prediction of Minimum and Maximum Seats of BJP, INC and Rest for General Elections 2019 in India Summary and Break up is :
Assumptions are:
UP (SP+BSP+RLD) alliance will take on BJP
Bihar (RJD+INC+Others) take on (BJP+JDU)
Karnataka (INC+JDS) take on BJP
Maharashtra (BJP+Sena) vs (INC+NCP)
BJP would stage strong come back for MP elections in Rajasthan and MP (as Congress Fails in its Jumla’s on Farmers as time is too short)
Words of Venkat Gandhi 