Category Archives: Indian Elections

Mood of India for GE in 2018-19

#VGtracker 20180208

This is my current Sense of the Mood of India and how next Loksabha may Look Like

BJP From 282 Tobe in the Range of  120 ~ 180
Going to fall Below 200 as its Expected to Gain only in Odisha at least 100 seats will be down in UP, Rajasthan, MP, Gujarat, Bihar, Chattisgarh and Delhi where I expect it to Loose close to half current seats

INC From 44 Tobe in the Range of  80 ~ 140
Likely to come back to 3 digits!
Rajasthan, MP, Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab, Chattisgarh it will make Gains about 50

Rest of all Parties will be in the range of  200 ~ 250

Indis is Likely to See a Truly Federal Government in the Center Next irrespective of who leads it and who is acceptable for all in the alliance to be the PM of India


Message from Mandate 2012-2013 India State Polls – “Change for Good Everywhere, Faster”

My take the People of India have given through State Elections

2012 : GoaGujaratHimachal PradeshManipurPunjabUttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand
2013 : KarnatakaDelhiTripuraRajasthanNagalandMizoramMeghalayaMadhya Pradesh,  Chhattisgarh

  1. Perform or Perish  (Reward with more for good Performance, decimate Bad Governance)
  2. Simplicity with Clarity and Conviction can WIN
  3. Decentralization of Power and Empowered Local Leadership is Critical
  4. Do not play with emotions
  5. Do not take voter for granted
  6. Vote on Sale is becoming History
  7. Traditional Vote Banks are cracking and may become history!
  8. Anti incumbency is becoming history
  9. Money Power in Polls is Reducing but still is playing significant role
  10. Urban Voter is more fragmented, more unpredictable than semi urban and rural voters
  11. Rural India still has traditional voting patterns
  12. Anger on Central Govt is Very High
  13. Momentum for Modi is Real
  14. Congress has Bigger Leadership problem in Delhi that never takes responsibility 
  15. Congress State Leaders or missing or less empowered
  16. India is not just in DELHI
  17. Significant number of voters are neutral
  18. Significant number of voters are Making decision towards the end and identifying party to be OUT and best alternative to be IN for Mandate
  19. Bar is raising for all smaller Parties to prove they are credible alternatives double digit (over 10% vote ) reduced in all 4 states and gained by the Credible alternative
  20. Politics is now Open platform for all and not a private affair of Have’s

Change for Good Everywhere, Faster 

is the Theme of all these messages I could read.

2013 Indian State Elections

 Forecast of Seats of 5 States Election Results
7th Dec 2013
State Seats BJP Congress AAP Others
Forecast Actual Forecast Actual Forecast Actual Forecast Actual
Chhattisgarh 90 50 48 38 40 NA NA 2 2
Madhya Pradesh 230 140 166 80 67 NA NA 10 7
Rajasthan 200 135 162 60  21 NA NA 5 16
Delhi 70 40  32 15  8 10  28 5 2
Mizoram 40
Total 630 365 408 193 127 10 27 22 28

* Apologies for not having enough personal insight myself on Mizoram, trying to raise my awareness

My summarize my Take on the Results taking total 590 Seats that went to Poll in the 4 States

  • BJP wins 408 Seats against my forecast of 365   (+10%) at 69% Strike Rate  – BIG WIN
  • Congress wins 127 against my forecast of 193  (-34%) at 21% Strike Rate – ESCAPE ROUT
  • AAP shows Freshness always has Takers and time will how they will fare with time (TDP, PRP, DMDK and others are past references)
  • Message BJP should take note of There is significant (over 10%) voter in Urban India who have made up their mind not to vote for Congress but have not made up their mind to vote for BJP and they seem to look for Simplicity at the Ground level more than high profile campaigns !
  • Impact for Telangana statehood are two no room for Congress to let any more gimmicks or delays at the same time its Billion dollar question if both Govt AP and Govt of India run by Congress have Oxygen left to last till the END…

As I wrote “December 2013 Month of Reckoning for Hyderabad, Telangana & India”

Jai Hind